Türkiye’de Turistik Yiyecek İçecek Harcamaları ile Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi (The Causality Relationship between Touristic Food and Beverage Expenditures and Real Effective Exchange Rate in Türkiye)

Abstract

Foreign tourism revenues in Türkiye are described by the Turkish Statistical Institute under many sub-headings. One of these is food and beverage expenditures. Since food and beverage expenditures fulfill a physiological need, they have an important share in total income. Just as there are factors affecting tourism revenues, there are also factors affecting food and beverage expenditures. One of these factors is considered to be the exchange rate. In this context, the aim of this study is to explain the relationship between the real effective exchange rate and tourist food and beverage expenditures within the framework of an econometric model. The data set of the study is composed of 57 observations covering the data between the first quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2023. Kapetanios and Zivot-Andrews unit root tests that allow structural breaks are used to determine the degree of integration of the series. As a result of the unit root test, the Granger causality model developed by Toda-Yamamoto was established due to the different degrees of integration of the variables included in the analysis. In addition, the first break date (second quarter of 2020), which was determined after the unit root tests of the food and beverage expenditures variable, was included in the model as a dummy variable. The findings of the study suggest that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between the real effective exchange rate and touristic food and beverage expenditures. According to this result, the real effective exchange rate in Türkiye can affect tourist food and beverage expenditures. In addition, touristic food and beverage expenditures can also affect the real effective exchange rate.