Turizm Ekonomi Politikalarında Hesaplanabilir Genel Denge Modelinin Değerlendirilmesi (The Evaluation of the Computable General Equilibrium Model in Tourism Economy Policies)

Abstract

In national and regional economic policy practices, since price and cost pressures in any industry arising from supply and demand relations have impact on other industries. Because of that the necessity of a balance of economic expansion or contraction has emerged. Recently, due to the weaknesses inherent in the Input-Output model, both in macro and micro economies, as a new paradigm shift "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models" have been introduced. CGE models are consist of a series of equations that examine the production, consumption, trade and government activities of the country's economy. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the economic effects of changes in tourism revenues and expenditures and to make predictions based on real data, mathematically / statistically determined basic relationships in the policy making of CGE models against the shocks that may occur in tourism economies. This study reveals the advantages of the economic effects of the shocks that may arise in tourism demand compared to the input-output analysis of CGE models. In addition to examining CGE models, the effects of static and dynamic aspects on destination management stakeholders were characterized. In this study metodically, the contributions of the five main sectors of the economy, which are included in the structure of the CGE model, and their importance on tourism decision makers are emphasized. In the study qualitative patterned document technique was used. According to the findings obtained; Examples of the CGE models in selected countries are included. As a result of such modeling, the appropriateness of tourism analysis and policy to various fields of tourism has been revealed and unique approaches to tourism planning, predictions and decision making have been determined. As a result of this study, why by governments, public and private sector institutions, consultants, and researchers should pay more interest in tourism policy analysis has been explained.