Döviz Kurları, Turizm Giderleri ve Yurtdışına Giden Vatandaş Sayıları Arasındaki İlişkiler: Granger Nedensellik Testi (Relationships Between Exchange Rates, Tourism Expenditures, And The Number of Citizens Traveling Abroad: Granger Causality Test)

Abstract

Tourism expenditure refers to the expenses incurred by Turkish Republic citizens residing within the country but traveling abroad for tourism purposes during their vacation. With a continuously increasing trend over the years, tourism expenditure is as crucial as the concept of tourism revenue. Calculating net tourism revenue involves subtracting tourism expenditure from the tourism revenue generated during a specific period. Academic studies generally focus on tourism revenue, but investigating tourism expenditure is equally important. To this end, this study addresses the topic of tourism expenditure and explores the causality relationship between exchange rates and tourism expenditure. In pursuit of this objective, the stationarity of the data is tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test. Subsequently, a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is constructed, and Granger causality analysis is conducted. The results of the study indicate that there is no Granger causality relationship between tourism expenditures and exchange rates (EURO and USD), as well as between exchange rates and tourism expenditures. In other words, the changes in exchange rates are not the cause of the expenditures made by citizens traveling abroad. Similarly, the research results also demonstrate that there is no causality from tourism expenditures to exchange rates. However, while no mutual causality relationship is found between USD and the total number of citizens departing the country, a mutual causality relationship is identified between the Euro currency and the number of citizens traveling abroad.