Covıd-19 Krizi ve Makroekonomik Göstergelerin Türkiye Turizm Talebine Yansımaları: Yapısal Var Modeli (Reflections of Covid-19 Crisis and Macroeconomic Indicators on Tourism Demand in Türkiye: Structural VAR Model)

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the determinants of tourism demand in Turkiye. For this purpose, an econometric model has been constructed within the framework of the literature. In the model, the dependent variable is the number of tourists travelling to Turkiye, while the independent variables are the real effective exchange rate, oil prices, consumer price index and Covid-19 pandemic dummy variable. In the study, ADF and PP unit root tests were applied and it was determined that the variables were stationary in their first differences. In order to determine the responses of the variables in the model to shocks, the Structural VAR (SVAR) Model was analysed with the long-run multiplier matrix, followed by impulseresponse analysis and variance decomposition. The results of the study show that one standard deviation shock to the tourism demand in Turkiye responds positively by decreasing until the 3rd month and the effect of the shock is dampened after the 3rd month. A positive shock to oil prices, real effective exchange rate and consumer price index initially decreases the number of tourists travelling to Turkiye. The shock related to the Covid-19 pandemic, on the other hand, has a negative impact on the number of tourists travelling to Turkiye.