Turizm Endüstrisinde Gri Gergedan Etkisi: Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşının BİST Turizm Endeksine Yansımaları (The Gray Rhino Effect in the Tourism Industry: Reflections of the Russia–Ukraine War on the BIST Tourism Index)

Abstract

Wars are not only crises that result in loss of life and property, but also geopolitical shocks that have profound impacts on economic sectors. The tourism industry, which is fundamentally based on peace, security, and stability, is directly affected by crises such as wars—events that are often foreseeable yet frequently neglected. International tourist mobility is highly sensitive to perceived risk levels, and in times of war, this sensitivity can lead to sharp declines in tourism revenues, cancellations of reservations, and postponement of investments. Such developments impact not only destinations themselves but also the stock performance of tourism companies listed on stock market indices. In this context, the aim of this study is to examine the effects of the Russia–Ukraine war on the Borsa Istanbul Tourism Index. For this purpose, the daily return data of 10 firms listed in the index were analyzed using the event study methodology for the period between January 2022 and March 2022. Abnormal returns were calculated within a ±3-day event window to clearly capture the impact of the event. The findings indicate that the war between the two countries led to negative abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns on and after the event day; however, the extent of this impact varied across firms. The presence of statistically significant abnormal returns for some firms prior to the event day suggests a weak form of semi-strong market efficiency in the related market.